This is Most Upsetting

Welcome to the most upsetting blog in College Football.   

I was unable to find a central repository and analysis of which teams in CFB are most likely to upset their opponents.  This blog is attempt to quantify how upsetting a team is.

What makes an upset?  In general, it's when a team beats an opponent considered much better than them.

Why are upsets important?  For one, they create huge memories for both the winner and the loser.  They can define a year for a team, they start cinderella runs, they dash playoff hopes, and even lead to coaching changes.  In short, they are a pretty big deal.

I had a suspicion that some teams are perennially upsetting in their DNA -- these are the teams that never really are at the top of the conferences, but they shouldn't be taken for granted either.  When a better team goes to visit, or even hosts them, don't go to sleep, something might just happen.

Using records of NCAA CFB games, this blog attempts to quantify which teams upset others most consistently -- these are the most upsetting teams in CFB.

The metric developed is as follows (it can be changed easily and the analysis done again with software I have developed):

• An upset is when a team beats one that is ranked 10 places or more better than them.
• A scare is a loss to or tie with a better team, provided the margin of loss is a field goal or closer -- the game could easily turn in the last minutes.  These are also surprising and memorable, but not as sweet as a win.  As always in CFB, winning is what really counts.
• An upset or scare against an opponent away should be worth more than when the worse ranked team plays at home.  It's harder for a worse ranked team to go into the house of the better team and win.
• A blowout win really intensifies the value of an upset.  That's when the wheels come off for the better team. Coaching, execution, and errors all conspire to collapse a team's spirit and they leave the field dejected and wondering what just happened.   

Each game that qualifies as an upset gets an overall upset score:

• For an upset win, 10 points for every ranking the upsetting team is worse than the better ranked team.  Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th for mathematical purposes.   For example, a 23rd ranked team beating a 4th ranked team would earn 190 points.
• Using the same ranking difference, a scare is worth 1/2 as much as an upset win, or 5 points for each rank difference.
• Away wins or scares are awarded a 20% bonus.
• Upset wins by a blowout are awarded a 40% bonus.  These are rare, so they are well rewarded.

Under this scoring system, the best possible upset win could earn 400 points, if an unranked team beats a 1st ranked team away by a blowout margin (250 upset score + 50 away bonus + 100 blowout bonus).  I haven't seen one yet, but will post if I do.

Take a look at the tables that show upset games.  For starters I will look at the last 40 years for the PAC-12 schools.  40 years are within the memory of some readers of the blog.  Leave a comment if you were at any of these upset games and share what you experienced.  Also leave comments if you want to see a different analysis: other criteria for what constitutes a blowout, other schools or conferences, or other time frames.

In the future I hope to expand the software to compare head coaches in an attempt to see who have consistently been the most upsetting coaches in CFB history.  Stay tuned!