Top Ten Most Upsetting Schools

The analysis so far.  This is for schools that have a record over the last 40 years.

Notes:  SEC is well represented with 4 teams. Pac-12 is well represented with 3 teams.  Scrappy teams from both conferences have frequent opportunities to play highly-ranked teams and stage upsets.  This is especially true for Michigan State as it gets to play Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan regularly.

School	Upset Average
Michigan State	Total upset score over 40 years is 5403.  Average per year is 135.075
Stanford	Total upset score over 40 years is 5318.  Average per year is 132.95
Arizona	Total upset score over 40 years is 5285.  Average per year is 132.125
Arkansas	Total upset score over 40 years is 4697.  Average per year is 117.425
Texas	Total upset score over 40 years is 4249.  Average per year is 106.225
UCLA	Total upset score over 40 years is 4188.  Average per year is 104.7
Georgia Tech	Total upset score over 40 years is 4154.  Average per year is 103.85
Louisiana State	Total upset score over 40 years is 3912.  Average per year is 97.8
Texas A&M	Total upset score over 40 years is 3866.  Average per year is 96.65
Mississippi State	Total upset score over 40 years is 3663.  Average per year is 91.575

Top Ten Statistical Upsets (so far)

This is during the last forty years.  Not all teams analyzed yet, but pretty close.

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Score	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
350	On Oct 17, 1981, unranked Arkansas defeated 1st ranked Texas by 31 points at home.	250	0	100
336	On Oct 20, 2018, unranked Purdue defeated 2nd ranked Ohio State by 29 points at home.	240	0	96
336	On Nov 17, 2012, unranked Baylor defeated 2nd ranked Kansas State by 28 points at home.	240	0	96
336	On Nov 11, 2006, unranked Georgia defeated 5th ranked Auburn by 22 points away.	210	42	84
322	On Oct 5, 1985, unranked Arizona defeated 3rd ranked SMU by 22 points at home.	230	0	92
322	On Oct 22, 2003, unranked West Virginia defeated 3rd ranked Virginia Tech by 21 points at home.	230	0	92
322	On Nov 4, 2017, unranked Iowa defeated 3rd ranked Ohio State by 31 points at home.	230	0	92
322	On Nov 17, 2016, unranked Houston defeated 3rd ranked Louisville by 26 points at home.	230	0	92
308	On Oct 3, 2015, 25th ranked Florida defeated 3rd ranked Ole Miss by 28 points at home.	220	0	88
308	On Oct 1, 1983, unranked Illinois defeated 4th ranked Iowa by 33 points at home.	220	0	88

AAC 40-Year Analysis Posted

Not all teams currently in the AAC have continuous football schedules for the last 40 years.  This group has very few upsets among them.  The best being:

On Nov 17, 2016, unranked Houston defeated 3rd ranked Louisville by 26 points at home.

Tulsa Upsets and Scares 1980-2019

Total upset score over 40 years is 241. Average per year is 6.025

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Value	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
110	On Sep 21, 1991, unranked Tulsa defeated 15th ranked Texas A&M by 1 points at home.	110	0	0
66	On Sep 27, 1980, unranked Tulsa narrowly lost to 15th ranked Arkansas by 3 points away.	55	11	0
65	On Nov 7, 2009, unranked Tulsa narrowly lost to 13th ranked Houston by 1 points at home.	65	0	0

For this table an upset is a win over an opponent ranked 10 or more slots better. Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th. The upset score is 10 points multiplied by the difference in ranking, thus a 21st ranked team beating a 1st ranked team is a better upset (200 points) than a 21st ranked team beating an 11th ranked team (100 points). Winning away grants a 20% bonus. Winning by 21 points or more is a blowout and grants a 40% bonus. A scare is a tie or a loss within 3 points of a better ranked team. Scares are worth 50% of upsets, and can get an away bonus. Leave a comment if you would like to see another school, other years, or different criteria for determining an upset or scare.

Tulane Upsets and Scares 1980-2019

Total upset score over 40 years is 398. Average per year is 9.95

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Value	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
228	On Nov 27, 1982, unranked Tulane defeated 7th ranked LSU by 3 points away.	190	38	0
170	On Sep 17, 1983, unranked Tulane defeated 9th ranked Florida State by 6 points at home.	170	0	0

For this table an upset is a win over an opponent ranked 10 or more slots better. Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th. The upset score is 10 points multiplied by the difference in ranking, thus a 21st ranked team beating a 1st ranked team is a better upset (200 points) than a 21st ranked team beating an 11th ranked team (100 points). Winning away grants a 20% bonus. Winning by 21 points or more is a blowout and grants a 40% bonus. A scare is a tie or a loss within 3 points of a better ranked team. Scares are worth 50% of upsets, and can get an away bonus. Leave a comment if you would like to see another school, other years, or different criteria for determining an upset or scare.

Temple Upsets and Scares 1980-2019

Total upset score over 40 years is 544. Average per year is 13.6

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Value	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
144	On Oct 17, 1998, unranked Temple defeated 14th ranked Virginia Tech by 4 points away.	120	24	0
120	On Sep 19, 1987, unranked Temple defeated 16th ranked Pitt by 3 points away.	100	20	0
90	On Sep 14, 1985, unranked Temple narrowly lost to 11th ranked Penn State by 2 points away.	75	15	0
70	On Nov 15, 2003, unranked Temple narrowly lost to 12th ranked Virginia Tech by 1 points at home.	70	0	0
65	On Sep 21, 1985, unranked Temple narrowly lost to 13th ranked BYU by 2 points at home.	65	0	0
55	On Nov 16, 2013, unranked Temple narrowly lost to 15th ranked UCF by 3 points at home.	55	0	0

For this table an upset is a win over an opponent ranked 10 or more slots better. Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th. The upset score is 10 points multiplied by the difference in ranking, thus a 21st ranked team beating a 1st ranked team is a better upset (200 points) than a 21st ranked team beating an 11th ranked team (100 points). Winning away grants a 20% bonus. Winning by 21 points or more is a blowout and grants a 40% bonus. A scare is a tie or a loss within 3 points of a better ranked team. Scares are worth 50% of upsets, and can get an away bonus. Leave a comment if you would like to see another school, other years, or different criteria for determining an upset or scare.

SMU Upsets and Scares 1989-2019

Total upset score over 31 years is 305. Average per year is 9.838709677419354

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Value	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
210	On Oct 22, 2016, unranked SMU defeated 11th ranked Houston by 22 points at home.	150	0	60
95	On Oct 29, 1994, unranked SMU tied 7th ranked Texas A&M at a neutral site.	95	0	0

For this table an upset is a win over an opponent ranked 10 or more slots better. Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th. The upset score is 10 points multiplied by the difference in ranking, thus a 21st ranked team beating a 1st ranked team is a better upset (200 points) than a 21st ranked team beating an 11th ranked team (100 points). Winning away grants a 20% bonus. Winning by 21 points or more is a blowout and grants a 40% bonus. A scare is a tie or a loss within 3 points of a better ranked team. Scares are worth 50% of upsets, and can get an away bonus. Leave a comment if you would like to see another school, other years, or different criteria for determining an upset or scare.

South Florida Upsets and Scares 2000-2019

Total upset score over 20 years is 776. Average per year is 38.8

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Value	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
238	On Sep 24, 2005, unranked South Florida defeated 9th ranked Louisville by 31 points at home.	170	0	68
228	On Nov 25, 2006, unranked South Florida defeated 7th ranked West Virginia by 5 points away.	190	38	0
130	On Sep 28, 2007, 18th ranked South Florida defeated 5th ranked West Virginia by 8 points at home.	130	0	0
120	On Sep 3, 2011, unranked South Florida defeated 16th ranked Notre Dame by 3 points away.	100	20	0
60	On Oct 20, 2012, unranked South Florida narrowly lost to 16th ranked Louisville by 2 points away.	50	10	0

For this table an upset is a win over an opponent ranked 10 or more slots better. Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th. The upset score is 10 points multiplied by the difference in ranking, thus a 21st ranked team beating a 1st ranked team is a better upset (200 points) than a 21st ranked team beating an 11th ranked team (100 points). Winning away grants a 20% bonus. Winning by 21 points or more is a blowout and grants a 40% bonus. A scare is a tie or a loss within 3 points of a better ranked team. Scares are worth 50% of upsets, and can get an away bonus. Leave a comment if you would like to see another school, other years, or different criteria for determining an upset or scare.

Navy Upsets and Scares 1980-2019

Total upset score over 40 years is 887. Average per year is 22.175

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Value	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
240	On Nov 17, 1984, unranked Navy defeated 2nd ranked South Carolina by 17 points at home.	240	0	0
200	On Oct 8, 2016, unranked Navy defeated 6th ranked Houston by 6 points at home.	200	0	0
176	On Nov 7, 2015, unranked Navy defeated 15th ranked Memphis by 25 points away.	110	22	44
120	On Sep 27, 2008, unranked Navy defeated 16th ranked Wake Forest by 7 points away.	100	20	0
96	On Sep 17, 2011, unranked Navy narrowly lost to 10th ranked South Carolina by 3 points away.	80	16	0
55	On Dec 30, 1981, unranked Navy narrowly lost to 15th ranked Ohio State by 3 points at a neutral site.	55	0	0

For this table an upset is a win over an opponent ranked 10 or more slots better. Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th. The upset score is 10 points multiplied by the difference in ranking, thus a 21st ranked team beating a 1st ranked team is a better upset (200 points) than a 21st ranked team beating an 11th ranked team (100 points). Winning away grants a 20% bonus. Winning by 21 points or more is a blowout and grants a 40% bonus. A scare is a tie or a loss within 3 points of a better ranked team. Scares are worth 50% of upsets, and can get an away bonus. Leave a comment if you would like to see another school, other years, or different criteria for determining an upset or scare.

Memphis Upsets and Scares 1980-2019

Total upset score over 40 years is 1093. Average per year is 27.325

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Value	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
200	On Nov 9, 1996, unranked Memphis defeated 6th ranked Tennessee by 4 points at home.	200	0	0
144	On Oct 8, 1988, unranked Memphis defeated 14th ranked Florida by 6 points away.	120	24	0
130	On Oct 17, 2015, unranked Memphis defeated 13th ranked Ole Miss by 13 points at home.	130	0	0
120	On Sep 2, 1991, unranked Memphis defeated 16th ranked USC by 14 points away.	100	20	0
114	On Sep 25, 1999, unranked Memphis narrowly lost to 7th ranked Tennessee by 1 points away.	95	19	0
110	On Oct 10, 1987, unranked Memphis defeated 15th ranked Alabama by 3 points at home.	110	0	0
100	On Oct 6, 1984, unranked Memphis tied 6th ranked Florida State at home.	100	0	0
95	On Nov 16, 1991, unranked Memphis narrowly lost to 7th ranked Alabama by 3 points at home.	95	0	0
80	On Oct 13, 2018, unranked Memphis narrowly lost to 10th ranked UCF by 1 points at home.	80	0	0

For this table an upset is a win over an opponent ranked 10 or more slots better. Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th. The upset score is 10 points multiplied by the difference in ranking, thus a 21st ranked team beating a 1st ranked team is a better upset (200 points) than a 21st ranked team beating an 11th ranked team (100 points). Winning away grants a 20% bonus. Winning by 21 points or more is a blowout and grants a 40% bonus. A scare is a tie or a loss within 3 points of a better ranked team. Scares are worth 50% of upsets, and can get an away bonus. Leave a comment if you would like to see another school, other years, or different criteria for determining an upset or scare.

Houston Upsets and Scares 1980-2019

Total upset score over 40 years is 1927. Average per year is 48.175

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Value	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
322	On Nov 17, 2016, unranked Houston defeated 3rd ranked Louisville by 26 points at home.	230	0	92
276	On Nov 10, 1984, unranked Houston defeated 3rd ranked Texas by 14 points away.	230	46	0
252	On Sep 12, 2009, unranked Houston defeated 5th ranked Oklahoma State by 10 points away.	210	42	0
240	On Oct 20, 1984, unranked Houston defeated 6th ranked SMU by 9 points away.	200	40	0
224	On Nov 12, 1988, unranked Houston defeated 10th ranked Wyoming by 24 points at home.	160	0	64
168	On Oct 24, 1981, unranked Houston defeated 12th ranked Arkansas by 3 points away.	140	28	0
120	On Sep 3, 2016, 15th ranked Houston defeated 3rd ranked Oklahoma by 10 points at a neutral site.	120	0	0
110	On Oct 25, 1980, unranked Houston defeated 15th ranked Arkansas by 7 points at home.	110	0	0
105	On Nov 7, 1981, unranked Houston tied 5th ranked Texas at home.	105	0	0
60	On Oct 28, 2000, unranked Houston narrowly lost to 14th ranked Southern Mississippi by 3 points at home.	60	0	0
50	On Oct 24, 2019, unranked Houston narrowly lost to 16th ranked SMU by 3 points at home.	50	0	0

For this table an upset is a win over an opponent ranked 10 or more slots better. Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th. The upset score is 10 points multiplied by the difference in ranking, thus a 21st ranked team beating a 1st ranked team is a better upset (200 points) than a 21st ranked team beating an 11th ranked team (100 points). Winning away grants a 20% bonus. Winning by 21 points or more is a blowout and grants a 40% bonus. A scare is a tie or a loss within 3 points of a better ranked team. Scares are worth 50% of upsets, and can get an away bonus. Leave a comment if you would like to see another school, other years, or different criteria for determining an upset or scare.

East Carolina Upsets and Scares 1980-2019

Total upset score over 40 years is 892. Average per year is 22.3

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Value	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
252	On Sep 6, 2008, unranked East Carolina defeated 8th ranked West Virginia by 21 points at home.	180	0	72
224	On Oct 19, 1996, unranked East Carolina defeated 12th ranked Miami (FL) by 25 points away.	140	28	56
170	On Sep 25, 1999, unranked East Carolina defeated 9th ranked Miami (FL) by 4 points at home.	170	0	0
132	On Oct 12, 1991, unranked East Carolina defeated 15th ranked Syracuse by 3 points away.	110	22	0
114	On Sep 3, 1983, unranked East Carolina narrowly lost to 7th ranked Florida State by 1 points away.	95	19	0

For this table an upset is a win over an opponent ranked 10 or more slots better. Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th. The upset score is 10 points multiplied by the difference in ranking, thus a 21st ranked team beating a 1st ranked team is a better upset (200 points) than a 21st ranked team beating an 11th ranked team (100 points). Winning away grants a 20% bonus. Winning by 21 points or more is a blowout and grants a 40% bonus. A scare is a tie or a loss within 3 points of a better ranked team. Scares are worth 50% of upsets, and can get an away bonus. Leave a comment if you would like to see another school, other years, or different criteria for determining an upset or scare.

Connecticut Upsets and Scares 2000-2019

Total upset score over 20 years is 467. Average per year is 23.35

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Value	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
150	On Oct 27, 2007, unranked Connecticut defeated 11th ranked South Florida by 7 points at home.	150	0	0
132	On Nov 7, 2009, unranked Connecticut narrowly lost to 4th ranked Cincinnati by 2 points away.	110	22	0
130	On Nov 21, 2015, unranked Connecticut defeated 13th ranked Houston by 3 points at home.	130	0	0
55	On Sep 21, 2013, unranked Connecticut narrowly lost to 15th ranked Michigan by 3 points at home.	55	0	0

For this table an upset is a win over an opponent ranked 10 or more slots better. Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th. The upset score is 10 points multiplied by the difference in ranking, thus a 21st ranked team beating a 1st ranked team is a better upset (200 points) than a 21st ranked team beating an 11th ranked team (100 points). Winning away grants a 20% bonus. Winning by 21 points or more is a blowout and grants a 40% bonus. A scare is a tie or a loss within 3 points of a better ranked team. Scares are worth 50% of upsets, and can get an away bonus. Leave a comment if you would like to see another school, other years, or different criteria for determining an upset or scare.

Cincinnati Upsets and Scares 1980-2019

Total upset score over 40 years is 866. Average per year is 21.65

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Value	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
190	On Nov 18, 2006, unranked Cincinnati defeated 7th ranked Rutgers by 19 points at home.	190	0	0
170	On Sep 18, 1999, unranked Cincinnati defeated 9th ranked Wisconsin by 5 points at home.	170	0	0
140	On Nov 10, 2007, unranked Cincinnati defeated 16th ranked Connecticut by 24 points at home.	100	0	40
132	On Sep 16, 2000, unranked Cincinnati narrowly lost to 4th ranked Wisconsin by 3 points away.	110	22	0
90	On Sep 25, 2010, unranked Cincinnati narrowly lost to 8th ranked Oklahoma by 2 points at home.	90	0	0
84	On Sep 25, 1993, unranked Cincinnati narrowly lost to 12th ranked Syracuse by 3 points away.	70	14	0
60	On Oct 26, 2012, unranked Cincinnati narrowly lost to 16th ranked Louisville by 3 points away.	50	10	0

For this table an upset is a win over an opponent ranked 10 or more slots better. Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th. The upset score is 10 points multiplied by the difference in ranking, thus a 21st ranked team beating a 1st ranked team is a better upset (200 points) than a 21st ranked team beating an 11th ranked team (100 points). Winning away grants a 20% bonus. Winning by 21 points or more is a blowout and grants a 40% bonus. A scare is a tie or a loss within 3 points of a better ranked team. Scares are worth 50% of upsets, and can get an away bonus. Leave a comment if you would like to see another school, other years, or different criteria for determining an upset or scare.

UCF Upsets and Scares 1996-2019

Total upset score over 24 years is 606. Average per year is 25.25

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Value	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
216	On Oct 18, 2013, unranked UCF defeated 8th ranked Louisville by 3 points away.	180	36	0
130	On Nov 14, 2009, unranked UCF defeated 13th ranked Houston by 5 points at home.	130	0	0
100	On Sep 15, 2007, unranked UCF narrowly lost to 6th ranked Texas by 3 points at home.	100	0	0
90	On Sep 25, 1999, unranked UCF narrowly lost to 11th ranked Georgia by 1 points away.	75	15	0
70	On Sep 28, 2013, unranked UCF narrowly lost to 12th ranked South Carolina by 3 points at home.	70	0	0

For this table an upset is a win over an opponent ranked 10 or more slots better. Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th. The upset score is 10 points multiplied by the difference in ranking, thus a 21st ranked team beating a 1st ranked team is a better upset (200 points) than a 21st ranked team beating an 11th ranked team (100 points). Winning away grants a 20% bonus. Winning by 21 points or more is a blowout and grants a 40% bonus. A scare is a tie or a loss within 3 points of a better ranked team. Scares are worth 50% of upsets, and can get an away bonus. Leave a comment if you would like to see another school, other years, or different criteria for determining an upset or scare.

Mountain West Analysis Posted

Not all teams have a 40-year continuous football program.  Ranges adjusted for the actual number of years within the last forty that each school has played.  There are very few upsets in this group, probably because they rarely play well-ranked teams, and when they do they rarely win.

Wyoming Upsets and Scares 1980-2019

Total upset score over 40 years is 696. Average per year is 17.4

Total Upset Score	Result	Upset Value	Away Bonus	Blowout Bonus
130	On Oct 24, 1981, unranked Wyoming defeated 13th ranked BYU by 13 points at home.	130	0	0
130	On Oct 29, 2016, unranked Wyoming defeated 13th ranked Boise State by 2 points at home.	130	0	0
126	On Oct 13, 1984, unranked Wyoming narrowly lost to 5th ranked BYU by 3 points away.	105	21	0
110	On Nov 13, 1999, unranked Wyoming defeated 15th ranked BYU by 14 points at home.	110	0	0
70	On Sep 6, 1986, unranked Wyoming narrowly lost to 12th ranked Baylor by 3 points at home.	70	0	0
70	On Dec 7, 1996, 20th ranked Wyoming narrowly lost to 6th ranked BYU by 3 points at a neutral site.	70	0	0
60	On Sep 27, 1997, unranked Wyoming narrowly lost to 16th ranked Colorado by 1 points away.	50	10	0

For this table an upset is a win over an opponent ranked 10 or more slots better. Unranked teams are considered ranked 26th. The upset score is 10 points multiplied by the difference in ranking, thus a 21st ranked team beating a 1st ranked team is a better upset (200 points) than a 21st ranked team beating an 11th ranked team (100 points). Winning away grants a 20% bonus. Winning by 21 points or more is a blowout and grants a 40% bonus. A scare is a tie or a loss within 3 points of a better ranked team. Scares are worth 50% of upsets, and can get an away bonus. Leave a comment if you would like to see another school, other years, or different criteria for determining an upset or scare.